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 Welcome to the subscriber only section of The Key Report
To Print this report please click hereAny Comments- Questions about this weeks report?Email Tony Keys tonykeys@netconnect.com.au Or Jenny Stonier jenny@ferment.com.au
The
Key Report by Ferment 2 November 2004
Editorial 'Boots gets kinky'. It's the sort of headline that draws your attention, well it did mine and not from the obvious angle (although I admit to a mind not quite as spotless as mother would like.) The first attraction was seeing the headline on a business news website; the second because I knew, as a Brit, that it referred to Boots the Chemist - there's one in every UK high street. The point of the news item was an announcement that Boots was in talks about stocking an adult range of sex toys, or 'pleasure-enhancing products'. The connection between wine and Boots was the story behind the story. Dear old Boots, as English as can be, has been slipping down the popularity ratings for a while now, no doubt due to supermarkets taking a slice of business away - just like independent wine stores. As most wineries have a mailing list and we know that and cellar door are the most profitable sales, think about what you could do to take back sales from the supermarkets. How about including a mate's wine from another region? Think hard, think long and, like Boots, try to find something that gets customers to your door, rather than them just grabbing a case next time they're shopping at the supermarket. The same day I came across the heading "Flashing dummies banned" on the Queensland Government website. http://www.dtftwid.qld.gov.au/news/detailed.asp?NewsID=39 I don't even want to go there. I'm off for a Guinness, have a good week. TK 1. Raise you a Cent Well they got it, now it just has to be paid for! Remember that last Board meeting - the one where it was agreed that earning tuppence a case out of selling to Woolworth's wasn't a large amount but hey there's a lot of wine around at the moment and tuppence is better then having the wine unsold - don't be surprised if tuppence turns out to be a penny. On the surface it only took a penny; at the end of all the dealing, bids and counter bids, all it took for the Woolworths and Bruce Mathieson combo Bruandwo to get control of Australian Leisure & Hospitality (ALH) was a penny. OK, a cent to be precise. Behind the scenes it was Bruandwo's ability to swing enough support to move over a 20% holding. On Friday 22 October Coles Myer and Macquarie Bank joint venture CMM Hotel and Retail Investments (CMM) offered $3.75 a share with the trading price closing that night at $3.60. On Monday morning 25 October Bruandwo extended its offer of $3.15 to 1November, with the proviso of paying $3.76 if they acquired assurances they would gain control of over 20% by that date. As they already owned 16.6%, they were only looking for less then 5%. The other incentive was payment within five days opposed to CMM payment terms in January 2005. 'Take the money' said the Directors of ALH, 'in the absence of a higher offer', naturally. Tuesday (26th) Bruandwo announced they had in excess of 20% of ALH therefore the offer is now the full $3.76 per share - no dropping back to the $3.15 offer. The directors of ALH request a 24-hour trading halt. On behalf of the CMM joint venture, John Fletcher, CEO of Coles Myer, announced they were not prepared to make a counter offer. He also said Coles Myer would 'pursue other opportunities which will both grow our liquor business and provide good returns for shareholders'. Take the money say the Directors of ALH, 'in the absence of a higher offer' naturally. Wednesday (27th) the shares started to change hands. A lot of money has been made by those sitting on the sidelines. Less than a year ago Fosters had difficulty in offloading ALH. As a supplier to Woolworths, will they now be asked to reduce margin to allow Woolworths to pay for it? Then again, Fosters did own 35.25 million shares in ALH that it acquired at $2.17, so has pocketed around $56 million. 2. A Brighter Constellation? Constellation Brands may not have got hold of the Robert Mondavi Corporation yet, but is it getting close? One would speculate yes, as yet no one else has publicly come forward although reports suggest there are quite a few interested. The Constellation bid of US$53 a share looked very generous. On the day it was offered at a 37% premium to the 11October closing price, but at 5 pm on Wednesday 27October they were trading at US$54.49. This would indicate that investors think there is a higher bid yet to come from Constellation. The difference between Constellation and other possible interested parties is they want the lot. Others, it appears, only want parts. The press have been all over the globe looking for possible suitors; Gallo is mentioned by many but it already controls a big chunk of the Californian wine business - any more could be seen as getting close to a monopoly. Besides, Gallo are not, or haven't been, takeover artists - preferring to develop brands themselves. Allied Domecq is another rumoured favourite; the question is, do they want that much wine? I can see them adding the odd brand to their portfolio but not the range under the Mondavi banner. Pernod Ricard has also been put forward - now that would make sense, but we must wait and see. Last Wednesday (27 Oct), Mondavi released its first quarter results ending 30 September for the 2005 financial year. Net revenues for the quarter are up 1% from the same period last year to US$105.1 million, with a net loss of US$57.7 million, compared to a profit of US$9.8 million last year. 3. Sticky fingers '"I'll tell you what it is, Pooh," exclaimed Tigger. "Its Christmas!" He pushed a large pot of honey into Pooh's stocking.' It appears some shareholders in Southcorp feel its directors are seeing Christmas every payday and getting plenty of honey. Reports on the AGM held last Thursday in Adelaide indicate it was a lively affair at times. Directors Robert Oatley, son Sandy Oatley and chairman Brian Finn, all standing for re-election, were criticised from the floor. Points raised included: * Paying too much for Rosemount. * Chairman Finn should go because he had been a party to all that had happened. * Lack of dividend payments. * The amount of money paid to directors. Answers flew neatly around - the directors were worth the dosh because they had turned the company around, it's not appropriate at this time to give dividends and Finn and the Oatley boys were re-elected. Also coming on to the board was Margaret Jackson who happens to be the chairwoman of Qantas, a director of ANZ Banking Group and Billabong International. Not surprisingly, the question asked was how is she going to find the time to fit Southcorp in? Smooth as honey, Finn pointed out such a professional person could cope with all. 'Some bears growl, some bears snort. But Pooh Bear is the humming sort' 4. Something Dark Going On… Looking through the results of Allied Domecq, it's notable the two brands not doing well are Kahlua (volume down 1%) and Tia Maria (volume down 11%). Both are similar drinks, based on coffee. What does it mean in the age of short black, latté and cappuccino? It's got me foxed - something dark going on I reckon. Premium wine, the report says, made £98 million ($241.30 million) profit in the last financial year. That's £13 million ($32 million) more than 2003. Net turnover for the year was £2,611 million, with profit before tax of £521 million - slightly above the analysts' forecasts. The current share price is hovering around the £4.80 mark after reaching the year's high in mid October of £5.04 compared to the year's low last October of £3.87. A share buy back has been rumoured. Should this news bring confidence to Australian companies such as Fosters, Southcorp and Lion Nathan? Is there light at the end of the tunnel? Well yes it should. Fosters held their AGM last week and Chairman Mr Frank Swan had no choice but to admit it hadn't been a good year for the American wine business, wine clubs and wine services. Amongst all the positive spin was the mention of Half Mile Creek: 'developed in response to identified consumer needs'. Having tasted the product recently, I find it sad that such a concoction could possibly satisfy any consumer needs. However Mr Swan and the other directors are not on the board to lift the standards and expectations of the wine drinking public, they are there to give investors good healthy returns on investment via an ever increasing share price and big juicy dividends. 'However let me stress here, that neither the Board nor management are satisfied with the performance of our global wine performance' said Mr Swan. CEO Trevor O'Hoy, followed the Chairman. It was fairly standard stuff - change the product and it could be any CEO from any sector speaking at any AGM. The sentence that did say shed loads was: 'we have not yet been able to leverage the full potential of the Beringer acquisition.' Why not is the question. It certainly isn't because of all the tosh that's been thrown around from September 11 through currency fluctuations, big harvest, extreme value wines or global downturn. Could it have been a cock-sure Australian Brewery buying an established US wine group? It wasn't that long ago that Fosters prattled on about its premium brands, premium being the only part of the market to be in, we'll show them how it's done and dictate what brands everyone will drink, but it wasn't the right approach. Ted Kunkel may have been CEO of Fosters for a dozen years and Walt Klenz CEO of Beringer in the US for several, but did they work well together? By looking at the state of the wine division one would suspect not. Kunkel is out and Klenz goes in January 2005. It will be interesting to observe just how Trevor O'Hoy and Jamie Odell handle the wine business. Much has been said in recent months about 2005 being the year to get wine back on track, with profits expected in 2006. However O'Hoy and Odell will be wanting to make their mark and quickly, which could lead to a tough year for employees, grape growers and suppliers to Fosters / Beringer both domestically and in the US. 5. Cor Vin! Vincor, Canadian based owners of Goundrey and Amberley Estate in Western Australia, have just announced the second quarter results ending 30 September: Income C$165.7million - up 37% on the corresponding period last year. Net Profit C$10.9 million - down 23% on the corresponding period last year. Reasons given for the downturn in profit was the acquisition of UK importer Western Wines requiring 'refinancing of the Company's banking and credit facilities'. Excluding these and other extra charges, the profit would have shown an increase of 18% or C$16.6 million. The breakdown of regional sales is interesting: * Canadian sales rising by approximately 5% to C$85.1 million. * US sales increasing by 7% to C$33.2 million. * Australian sales growing by 58% to C$8.7 million. *Sales in other regions growing by 56% to C$4.6 million. * Sales in the UK from the date of acquisition, for which there is no prior year comparison, were C$34 million. For the half-year, sales have increased 22% to C$278.9 million and net profit decreased by 11.1% to $21.1 million. Excluding the acquisition and financing charges described above, net profit for the six-month period rose by 13% to $26.6 million. 6. Binge Tinge The second European Forum for Responsible Drinking organised by the Amsterdam Group (AG) has just been held in Brussels. Yes we know it sounds boring, but drink is a problem all over the world. Look at several of Australia's indigenous communities, (or look the other way). The forum was looking at young people and alcohol in Europe. Patrick Ricard, CEO of Pernod-Ricard (parent of Orlando-Wyndam) gave the keynote address. His comments included: 'responsibility, irreproachability and exemplarity' as the three principles he endeavors to apply as CEO of a leading alcoholic beverages manufacturer. Other comments included that he entirely supports: 'training of servers and bartenders to protect young people', and 'self regulation on the field of production, promotion and distribution.' Before dismissing this as someone else's problem, take into account that the Amsterdam Group is funded by the drinks industry. The more wine becomes mainstream, the more it will be held responsible for the damage caused - a drunken idiot or a violent lout is the same whether fuelled by larger or shiraz. Marie Choquet is a epidemiologist and Director of research in Inserm (National Institute of Health and Medical Research) in Paris and in charge of the 'health of adolescence. It's a website worth a visit: (if your French isn’t too rusty). www.casediscute.com/2001/103_alcool_jeunes/invites/specialiste_01.shtml Choquet was one of the presenters and had much to say on the effect of alcohol on young people. Choquet is concerned about the flow on effect - drink to cigarettes to cannabis perhaps to harder drugs. It's more a boy than a girl thing, but when girls become involved drunkenness can also lead to unprotected sex and pregnancy. Add this to drink driving and it's a problem we all need to be aware of. One graph Choquet presented showed how consumption of alcohol amongst young people in France had declined from 18 to 10 litres and in Italy from 12 to 8 litres. This news was tempered by dramatic increases in Poland, Ireland, Denmark, Finland, UK and The Netherlands. Professor Adrian Furnham is from University College London. His presentation included: *Binge drinking is usually defined as five or more alcoholic drinks consumed in one sitting. *Students who are most likely to binge drink are white, age 23 or younger, and are residents of a fraternity or sorority. * Binge drinking peaks at ages 18-22 then gradually decreases. *Numbers have stayed relatively steady over the past years. *There is no clear evidence that heavy drinking at college leads to excessive use later in life. *Binge drinking is generally restricted to the weekend. It's plain there are arguments on both sides - what would our Uni years have been if they hadn't been fuelled by gallons of cheap booze, joints the size of sausages and regular amounts of sex? It's good to see most grow out of the stage, but let's be aware that some do get damaged along the way. 7. Chile the New Australia?! Michael Cox, UK Director; Wines of Chile, recently gave a presentation to wineries in Chile. Starting at the end: New World Order Chile is the new Australia Australia is the new France! What does it mean? Is it true? Makes you think, doesn't it? We leave it to you to make of it what you will. Meanwhile, back to Mr Cox's presentation: There is a mission statement - along the lines of what a mission statement should be, ie: an impressive jumble of words that someone on some planet thinks will inspire those who work for the organization: To establish Chile as the most impressive and dynamic source of premium quality new world wines Pure Cox the next bit and good theatre. Scroll down the page, and continue to: To achieve in 5 years, more than Australia did in 15 years! I thought it was quite good really - very positive, stir up the wineries, get them believing they can have what we have. The trouble is, if they are to get what we have, they will have to get most or at least some of it, from us. Cox includes the following to show that wine consumption is growing: 'Wines sales in the UK will reach £7 billion by 2008, up some 15% compared to last year, according to recent research. Produced by Datamonitor, the Wine in Europe study predicts that the amount of wine consumed per capita per year in the UK will grow from 16.6 litres to 19.3 by 2008, up from 14 litres in 1998.' However that is not going to soak up all the world's wine - Chile will still need to go after our share to achieve all they are aiming for. So how are the Chileans doing in the UK market? According to Cox's overview: * Chile's share of the retail trade grew 16% by volume and 15% by value in the 12 months to Oct 2004 - a growth rate three times that of Australia. * Chile now has 6.3% by value of the UK market - and it has overtaken Spain to claim 6th position in the country share. * Chile now has a 6% share of the on-trade market in the UK - the highest share of any New World country except Australia. * Exports of bottled wine from Chile to the UK increased in the 12 months to August 2004 by 31% by volume, and 29% by FOB value. *The average price of Chilean wine in the retail trade is the fifth highest of all countries, and higher than South Africa and Argentina. * Mentions of Chilean wines in the consumer press have doubled in the 12 months to May 2004. Chile is the third most mentioned country in the press. There's no denying they are having a go and moving up the ladder - we must keep a sharp eye on them. One aspect of Cox's campaign I find interesting is the Wines of Chile Awards, with the second event to be held in Santiago in January 2005. Along with a couple of local judges, respected UK names are flown out of mid winter UK to sunny Chile. Next year from the UK Oz Clarke, Charles Metcalfe, Steven Spurrier, Rosemary George MW, Liz Morcom MW, Peter Richards and Michael Schuster will judge the awards. I know Australian shows often have a guest judge but Cox the Fox might be onto something with this setup. Mr Cox and his Chilean band may be upwardly mobile but according to reports so is Australia - the AWBC figures show that in the year to September the value of shipments to the UK are on the rise. Just how much can the Brits absorb? The Chileans are doing well, so are the Aussies and according to reports the South Africans and Californians also. Su Birch, CEO of Wines of South Africa has reported that wine export volumes for 2004 would grow by at least 14% (all destinations) on last year's 237 million litres, up from the 11% initially projected. Like Australia, the UK is a major market for SA wine. Unlike Australia, whose value is dropping, the South Africans have managed to push their price up, OK it's only from an average RSP of £3.68 to £3.80 and Australia is still above £4, but it is upwards. The South Africans now have a 10.1% value share of UK retail market and volume of 10.2%, both figures also up on the previous year. Ms Birch's big claim was a target of selling half a million cases over the RSP £5 in 2005. She was very pleased to announce it had been done ahead of schedule. * In Germany, South Africa has moved from ninth to sixth place. * In Sweden from sixth to third, * In the US, in the first six months of the year, sales increased 44% by value and 41% by volume on 2003. The Californians are also on the 'let's increase UK sales' trail. California wine sales in the UK have shot up the ratings in the past three years, now occupying third spot. That may be good news for them statistically, but the quality of the wine… that's another story (although it's probably the sort of style that Fosters will do well with via Half Mile Creek). The Wine Institute of California has launched a new campaign in the UK. The plan is to reach 18.5 million case sales by 2007 and remove France from second place. It has been recognised that California misses out in the '£4 to £4.99' and '£5 to £5.99' sectors. It's the sectors South Africa wants to get a bigger slice of, Australia wants to hold onto, Chile is aiming for and if France wakes up and pitches in, bugger me, it'll be crowded. The research referred to a tasting of 331 Californian wines that would fall into UK RSP £4-£10 bracket. A tasting panel whittled down the group to 16 benchmark wines that will be shown at trade and consumer events. The wines, in no particular order but vintage are: 2003 Dry Creek Vineyards Chenin Blanc 2003 Hahn Estates Monterey Chardonnay 2003 J Lohr Winery Painter Bridge Chardonnay 2003 Bonterra Vineyards Viognier 2003 Fetzer Vineyards Valley Oaks Syrah Rosé 2003 Delicato Vineyards Kingfish Shiraz 2002 Blackstone Winery Shiraz 2002 Concannon Vineyard Central Coast Syrah 2002 Ironstone Vineyards Petite Syrah 2002 Rancho Zabaco Sonoma Heritage Vines Zinfandel 2002 Beringer Vineyards Stone Cellars Sauvignon Blanc 2002 Woodbridge Select Vineyard Series Ghost Oaks Chardonnay 2002 RH Phillips Toasted Head Merlot 2001 Blossom Hill Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon 2001 Camelot Cabernet Sauvignon 2001 Ravenswood Lodi Old Vine Zinfandel It would be very interesting to get the line up in Australia and have a look. Any help in tracking down these wines would be appreciated. 8. Snatches & Dispatches * Many views are held, offered and exchanged about Robert Parker. It doesn't matter what your view, you have to admit he has clout in the US so congratulations to Buller Wines from Rutherglen in North Eastern Victoria for receiving a perfect 100 points for their Calliope Tokay - especially as this is the second year in a row they have received His Bobness's highest blessing. * The German wine trading group Hawesko Holding Fund AG, in which the International Wine Investment Fund has a stake of around 8%, has published its third quarter results ending September 30: - Sales (excluding sales tax) up 2% to €60.1 million, same period previous year €59.1 million. - Earnings before Interest & tax rose by 21% to €1.2 million, same quarter in the previous year: €1.0 million. The group has done well to increase market share as according to a recent study of the German wine market, wine overall made little progress in the third quarter with an increase of only +0.1%. Sales of wines via the specialist wine retail sales channel in Germany experienced a 2% decline. * The 2005 edition of Which? Wine Guide has been launched in the UK with the earth shattering news:'If you often buy a bottle of wine for under a fiver you could be buying poor quality plonk'. Editor Susan Keevil is reported as saying: 'Wine priced below £5 encourages them to accept yet another batch of sub-standard fruit which in turn leads supermarkets to stifle yet another quality check or stamp a quirky grape blend out of existence.' * Trophies from the Limestone Coast Wine Show Best Wine of Show:Hollick Wines Cabernet Sauvignon 2002 Best Red Wine of Show: Hollick Wines Cabernet Sauvignon 2002 Best Cabernet Sauvignon: Hollick Wines Cabernet Sauvignon 2002 Best Blended Red: Hollick Wines Shiraz Cabernet 2002 Viticulturist of Best Wine of Show: Stuart Sharam Best White Wine of Show: Browns of Padthaway Sauvignon Blanc 2004 Best White Wine in classes 1, 3, 8, 10, 16, 21, 26: Browns of Padthaway Sav / Blanc 2004 Most Successful Exhibitor: Balnaves of Coonawarra Best Chardonnay: Balnaves of Coonawarra Chardonnay 2003 Best Shiraz: Balnaves of Coonawarra Shiraz 2002 International Judge Award: Balnaves of Coonawarra Shiraz 2002 Best Individual Vineyard Wine: Orlando Wines Lawson's Padthaway Shiraz 1998 Best Museum Wine: Orlando Wines Lawson's Padthaway Shiraz 1994 It looks to have been a good show - 472 wines entered from 66 exhibitors, regions included Coonawarra, Padthaway, Robe, Mount Benson and Wrattonbully and surrounding areas that make up the Limestone Coast Zone. Very good to see an award for the often-anonymous Viticulturist. Congratulations to Stuart Sharam. It's also good to see the Lawson's Padthaway Shiraz 1994 still winning awards. I've drunk a fair amount of the wine - it's a cracker. Browns snagging another two trophies for the region keeps the reputation of Padthaway up there. Balnaves did exceptionally well and now I suggest they write to the UK scribe who was upsetting them with his theory about machine picking and pruning creating inferior wines. They should mention these results and the fact the International Judges award came from UK wine scribe Anthony Rose. Our congratulations also to Hollick; must be quite some wine the 2002 Cabernet Sauvignon. 9. The Sediment * In an interview with Bloomberg.com 26 October, Big Mac (Brian McGuigan) reckons the Australian dollar is going to 80 cents US. He may well be right. If it does reach and settle at that level, Big Mac could move bottling overseas to save costs he says. If he's right, and it does reach 80 cents, growers beware - if you think prices are low now, just wait! * Heard the latest? Red wine could protect against lung cancer and, this is the clincher, apparently white wine may increase the risk. 10. Letter from Bolac What a week! Worked like buggery last Sunday and Monday to get Tuesday free to take Josh, our ten year old sporting hero, down to Geelong to compete in regional athletics, only to find he's not been entered by his school. Although we'd just driven for two hours, we were told that they couldn't enter him now and it wasn't the referees or the coordinator or the school's or the teacher's fault. I'm going to suggest that they include passing the buck as an event next year. On Friday night, against my better judgement, a friend and I attended the opening of an art exhibition. Ok, it's not my usual scene, but it was in a winery and we knew the tucker would be good. The art I will skip, I thought most of it looked as if Skippy was the artist. Anyway, we were standing there all spruced up with glass of red and tasty canapés, trying to enjoy myself, when in walks a lady from Bolac with her friend. She took one look at us and said to her friend, in a good stage whisper: 'Oh I didn't think people from Bolac would be here.' Obviously me and my mate, (sorry, my friend and I) are from the wrong side of the Bolac tracks. Mrs. Snob manages to avoid us most of the evening as in turn we manage to avoid most of the extremely boring people who frequent these events. However I did end up talking to a doctor who asks if I had met the new doctor in Bolac. A simple enough question, you might think, the trouble being we haven't had a doctor in Bolac for some time. Now we have a doctor who visits two afternoons a week. Instead of just accepting my answer 'yes', the doctor, who had just returned from France and was wearing a beret, starts on about how he wouldn't come to Bolac unless they paid him a fortune as doctoring is a business and in the hour it took him to drive there he could see six people etc etc. By this time my good old socialist principles are reaching boiling point. Anyway, he goes on to tell me he is passionate about wine, in fact he has a vineyard and makes wine. The only reason he is a doctor is to make money, to him the art of healing is nothing - it's all about making money so he can pretend he is the maker of a $50 bottle of wine!
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